Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
